#1 Names by State

The national baby name data came out last Friday, but the state data was only released today!  The #1 most popular names nationally are Noah and Emma, but they aren’t the #1 names in all 50 states + DC.  Let’s take a look. 

  1. Alabama: William and Ava (no change)
  2. Alaska: Liam and EmmaOlivia was #1 in 2015.
  3. Arizona: Liam and Emma.  2015: Noah and Sophia
  4. Arkansas: Elijah and Ava.  2015: William and Emma
  5. California: Noah and MiaSophia was #1 in 2015.
  6. Colorado: Liam and OliviaEmma was #1 in 2015.
  7. Connecticut: Noah and OliviaSophia was #1 in 2015.
  8. Delaware: Liam and AvaMason was #1 in 2015.
  9. District of Columbia: William and AvaGenesis was the #1 girls’ name in 2015.
  10. Florida: Liam and Isabella.  No change.
  11. Georgia: William and Ava.  No change.
  12. Hawaii: Noah and OliviaMia was #1 in 2015.
  13. Idaho: Oliver and EmmaLiam and Olivia were #1 in 2015.
  14. Illinois: Noah and Olivia.  No change.
  15. Indiana: Oliver and EmmaLiam was #1 in 2015.
  16. Iowa: Oliver and Olivia.  Owen is #2.  Liam and Emma were #1 in 2015. 
  17. Kansas: Benjamin and EmmaLiam was #1 in 2015.
  18. Kentucky: William and Emma.  No change.
  19. Louisiana: Liam and AvaNoah was #1 in 2015.
  20. Maine: Liam and Emma.  No change.
  21. Maryland: Noah and AvaOlivia was #1 in 2015.
  22. Massachusetts: Benjamin and Olivia.  No change.
  23. Michigan: Noah and AvaOlivia was #1 in 2015.
  24. Minnesota: Henry and EvelynOlivia was #1 in 2015.
  25. Mississippi: William and Ava.  No change.
  26. Missouri: William and OliviaLiam and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  27. Montana: James and HarperWilliam and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  28. Nebraska: Liam and EmmaHenry and Olivia were #1 in 2015.
  29. Nevada: Liam and MiaSophia was #1 in 2015.
  30. New Hampshire: Noah and CharlotteJackson and Olivia were #1 in 2015.
  31. New Jersey: Liam and MiaEmma was #1 in 2015.
  32. New Mexico: Elijah and MiaNoah was #1 in 2015.
  33. New York: Liam and Olivia.  No change.
  34. North Carolina: William and Ava.  No change.
  35. North Dakota: Oliver and HarperLiam and Ava were #1 in 2015.
  36. Ohio: Liam and Emma.  No change. 
  37. Oklahoma: Liam and EmmaElijah was #1 in 2015.
  38. Oregon: Oliver and OliviaLiam and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  39. Pennsylvania: Noah and EmmaMason and Olivia were #1 in 2015.
  40. Rhode Island: Liam and OliviaNoah was #1 in 2015.
  41. South Carolina: William and Ava.  No change
  42. South Dakota: Oliver and EmmaHarper was #1 in 2015.
  43. Tennessee: William and Emma.  No change.
  44. Texas: Noah and Emma.  No change.
  45. Utah: Oliver and OliviaWilliam and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  46. Vermont: Owen and HarperLiam and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  47. Virginia: William and OliviaEmma was #1 in 2015.
  48. Washington: Liam and Emma.  Oliver and Olivia were #1 in 2015.
  49. West Virginia: Mason and HarperNoah and Emma were #1 in 2015.
  50. Wisconsin: Oliver and OliviaEmma was #1 in 2015.
  51. Wyoming: Wyatt and EmmaLiam was #1 in 2015.  

The #1 boys’ names of 2016 by frequency:

  • Liam (15x)
  • William (10x)
  • Noah (9x)
  • Oliver (8x)
  • Benjamin (2x)
  • Elijah (2x)
  • Henry
  • James
  • Mason
  • Owen
  • Wyatt

Compared to 2015, when they were:

  • Liam (16x)
  • Noah (13x)
  • William (12x)
  • Oliver (3x)
  • Henry (2x)
  • Mason (2x)
  • Benjamin
  • Jackson
  • Elijah

The #1 girls’ names by frequency:

  • Emma (16x)
  • Olivia (13x)
  • Ava (11x)
  • Harper (4x)
  • Mia (4x)
  • Charlotte
  • Evelyn
  • Isabella

Compared to 2015, when they were:

  • Emma (22x)
  • Olivia (12x)
  • Ava (8x)
  • Sophia (4x)
  • Mia (2x)
  • Genesis
  • Harper
  • Isabella

How is it possible for Noah to be the #1 name nationally without being the most frequent name among the states?  Answer: Noah is #1 where it matters most – California and Texas. 

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Visualization of #1 name frequency

Thoughts?  Are you surprised by anything?  Let me know in the comments!  

Bonus points!  The #1 names in Puerto Rico are Sebastian and ValentinaVictoria was #1 in 2015.

Top 1000 Entries and Exits in 2016

Here are all the names that entered and left the U.S. top 1000 in 2016!  There are 45 new girls’ names and 42 new boys’ names.  Remember, the top 1000 is America’s threshold for popularity.  Baby names below the top 1000 are considered rare.  

New:

  • Aadhya, Ailani, Alessia, Alianna, Alyvia, Amayah, Anniston, Antonella, Antonia, Ari, Aubri, Ayana, Belle, Bexley, Blaire, Calliope, Chandler, Davina, Ellianna, Emmie, Harleigh, Itzayana, Jana, Joelle, Kaylani, Kehlani, Louise, Maren, Mavis, Maxine, Maylee, Mercy, Nalani, Novalee, Poppy, Ramona, Rayne, Reign, Riya, Rosalyn, Royalty, Saoirse, Sylvie, Tinsley, Vada
  • Ahmir, Alistair, Benicio, Brayson, Bridger, Brysen, Eason, Eliezer, Creed, Foster, Fox, Greysen, Gus, Hakeem, Harris, Howard, Ira, Jad, Jair, Jamar, Jeremias, Jericho, Karim, Keanu, Khalid, Koda, Konner, Krish, Kylo, Leif, Lyle, Maddux, Merrick, Mikael, Ramiro, Ralph, Shepherd, Tadeo, Tristian, Wesson, Westley, Zyaire

Through data adjustment, Yisroel is new for both 2016 and 2015.

Yes, Kylo (like Kylo Ren) is a popular baby name now!  My mom didn’t react very well when I told her.

Royalty (581 girls) was the highest debut in the girls’ list, followed by Reign (344).  Fox (323) was the most popular entry to the boys’ list. 

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Royalty was the most popular debut, followed by Reign.

Exits:

  • Aimee, Alissa, Alisson, America, Aminah, Angeline, Avalyn, Asia, Aubrianna, Bryanna, Caitlin, Caitlyn, Charlize, Cordelia, Denise, Dixie, Emmalee, Giavanna, Ireland, Jaida, Janiya, Jaylin, Jenny, Jocelynn, Jordynn, Kaelynn, Katelynn, Kaitlynn, Kayden, Kensington, Kiley, Kimora, Kristen, Kyndall, Libby, Lindsay, Mollie, Natalee, Neriah, Sarahi, Saniyah, Sidney, Tara, Taya, Yaritza
  • Aaden, Aarush, Ayan, Aydan, Bishop, Boden, Brice, Camren, Chace, Chevy, Cristopher, Davin, Deangelo, Deshawn, Dilan, Ean, Frankie, Freddy, Haiden, Jadon, Jayvion, Jonael, Jordyn, Jovani, Juelz, Kaeden, Kamren, Kamron, Kylen, Malaki, Osvaldo, Quintin, Rashad, Reagan, Robin, Rodolfo, Todd, Triston, Truman, Tyrone, Yaakov, Yadiel

Due to data adjustment, Antoine is out of the top 1000 for both 2016 and 2015.

Reagan was used often enough to be in the top 1000, but was forced out by #1000 Jonathon.  When names are used equally, alphabetical order determines rank preference. 

Notice how all those spellings of Caitlin are suddenly rare?  The prevailing theory is that Caitlyn Jenner killed any popularity the name still had (which wasn’t a lot, admittedly).  I agree that this is why, but I wonder if last year’s “Kaitlyn spelled with Roman numerals” scare also turned some parents off the name. 

Thoughts?  What are your favorite entering names?  Are you disappointed that any left?  Finally, do you know any people with these names?

Personally:

  1. I’m impressed that my fellow Americans are using so heavily Irish a name as Saoirse and spelling it correctly! 
  2. Very happy that Calliope, Poppy, and Alistair are popular names now!  Davina is also a lovely surprise.  Sad to see Cordelia gone (again).   
  3. Over the years, I’ve met people named Antonella, Chandler (both genders), Gus, Lyle, Maren, and maybe Karim & Ramiro.  There was also supposed to be a Mercy in my 2nd grade class, but she never appeared. 😦  I did encounter a baby Saoirse last year, though!
  4. From the exiting names, I’ve known people called Aimee, Brice (female), Denise, Frankie (male), Lindsay, Natalee, and Todd.  I’ve also met too many Caitlin‘s (or Kaitlynn‘s, Kaitlin‘s, etc.) to count.

P.S. – You can check this list of entries and exits against my predictions

Source: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/babynames/index.html

Edit 5/15/17: Fox was actually the top boys’ name debut.

Overview of the Top 100 Baby Names, 2016 Edition

Now that I’m finally getting a chance to examine the new data more thoroughly, here is an overview of the Top 100 baby names, 2016 edition!  I’m so happy they’re here. 🙂

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Visualization of the 2016 Top 100.  The bigger the name, the more popular it is!

New to the top 100:

  • Adeline, Luna, Kinsley, Elena, Eliana, Willow
  • Bryson, Leonardo, Greyson, Roman

Left the top 100:

  • Ashley, Isabelle, Annabelle, Alexandra, Alyssa, Alexis
  • Nathaniel, Kayden, Ryder, Blake

Apparently due to data adjustment, Khloe is not only out of the 2016 top 100 but for 2015 too.  I predicted she’d leave, but not like this!

Also, that’s a lot of ‘A’ names that just left.  Every generation seems to have its trendy letters; did we just witness the start of another ‘A’ decline?   

Positive rank changes give us good sense of a name’s popularity, which is a comparative measure.  Here are the names that rose in the charts via rank:

  • Bryson (+40; new), Mateo (+26), Leo (+17), Lincoln (+16), Theodore (+16), Greyson (+15; new), Owen (+13), Easton (+12), Asher (+11) Sebastian (+11), Grayson (+10), Carson (+8), Leonardo (+ 8; new), Elias (+7), Ezra (+7), Henry (+7), Oliver (+7), Julian (+6), Nolan (+6), Benjamin (+4), Hudson (+4), Roman (+4; new), Aaron (+3), Jaxon (+3), Jose (+3), Thomas (+3), Elijah (+2), Isaiah (+2), Jack (+2), James (+2), Jason (+2), Jaxson (+2), Josiah (+2), Lucas (+2), Samuel (+2) William (+2), Xavier (+2), Connor (+1), Eli (+1), Joseph (+1), Michael (+1), Robert (+1), Wyatt (+1)
  • Adeline (+72; new), Luna (+33; new), Kinsley (+27; new), Eleanor (+19), Quinn (+18), Willow (+16; new), Riley (+13), Ruby (+12), Elena (+12; new), Hazel (+11), Camila (+10), Alice (+10), Claire (+9), Eliana (+9; new), Penelope (+7), Genesis (+7), Aria (+6), Stella (+6), Caroline (+6), Nora (+5), Mila (+5), Scarlett (+4), Ellie (+4), Maya (+4), Autumn (+4), Gianna (+4), Evelyn (+3), Violet (+3), Charlotte (+2), Eva (+2), Naomi (+2), Reagan (+2), Ava (+1), Amelia (+1), Ella (+1), Lily (+1), Skylar (+1), Sarah (+1), Cora (+1), Julia (+1)

Here are the negative rank changes, or the names that became less popular in 2016:

  • Brandon (-16), Parker (-15), Chase (-12), Gavin (-10), Kevin (-10), Tyler – 10, Colton – 9, Jonathan (-8), Jayden (-7), Caleb (-7), Landon (-7), Jordan (-7), Bentley (-7), Angel (-6), Anthony (-5), Dylan (-5), Nathan (-5), Ayden (-5), Ethan (-4), Logan (-4), Andrew (-4), Christopher (-4), Hunter (-4), Jeremiah (-4), Dominic (-4), Austin (-4), Jacob (-3), Aiden (-3), Alexander (-3), Gabriel (-3), Christian (-3), Brayden (-3), Sawyer (-3), Carter (-2), John (-2), Joshua (-2), Adrian (-2), Evan (-2), Adam (-2), Ian (-2), Cooper (-2), Zachary (-2), Mason (-1), Daniel (-1), David (-1), Luke (-1), Ryan (-1), Charles (-1), Cameron (-1), Nicholas (-1), Jace (-1)
  • Alexa (-18), Kylie (-17), Brianna (-16), Arianna (-13), Mackenzie (-12), Taylor (-12), Allison (-10), Faith (-9), Kaylee (-9), Peyton (-9), Ariana (-8), Sadie (-8), Anna (-7), Gabriella (-7), Katherine (-6), Aaliyah (-5), Addison (-5), Aubree (-5), Hannah (-5), Nevaeh (-5), Aubrey (-4), Bella (-4), Hailey (-4), Madison (-4), Natalie (-4), Samantha (-4), Brooklyn (-3), Chloe (-3), Madelyn (-3), Zoey (-3), Audrey (-2), Kennedy (-2), Lillian (-2), Zoe (-2), Abigail (-1), Clara (-1), Emily (-1), Leah (-1), Madeline (-1), Melanie (-1), Paisley (-1), Serenity (-1), Sophia (-1), Victoria (-1)

No rank change.  Consider these names steady (or a safe choice) for now:

  • Noah, Liam, Matthew, Jackson, Isaac, Levi
  • Emma, Olivia, Isabella, Mia, Harper, Elizabeth, Sofia, Avery, Grace, Layla, Savannah, Lucy, Piper, Lydia, Vivian

Next, I’ve looked at the raw usage for names.  Increasingly, I view raw usage as one way to measure how trendy names are.  It may also reflect a declining birth rate or diversifying pool of names.  To sort out attrition and distinguish the names that are indeed very trendy or not at all, I’m listing the names that went up or down at least 500 uses.

Biggest gains (+500 or more) in decreasing order:

  • Adeline*, Charlotte, Riley, Ava, Amelia, Luna*, Camila, Evelyn, Eleanor, Scarlett, Kinsley*, Quinn, Aria
  • Mateo, Oliver, Bryson*, Lincoln, Benjamin, Grayson, Theodore, Greyson, Leo, Owen, Sebastian, Lucas, Ezra

The asterisk (*) indicates that a name is new to the top 100.

Biggest losses (500 or more) in decreasing order:

  • Sophia, Alexa, Madison, Emma, Aubrey, Isabella, Emily, Kylie, Ashley (left top 100), Abigail, Arianna, Avery, Allison, Alyssa (left top 100), Kaylee, Sofia, Zoey, Mia
  • Logan, Jacob, Jayden, Mason, Ethan, Aiden, Alexander, Brandon, Blake (left top 100), Landon, Caleb, Gavin, Anthony, Christopher, Andrew, David, Parker, Colton, Hunter, Gabriel, Jonathan, Kevin, Tyler, Jordan, Nathan, Joshua, Carter, Daniel, Joseph, Dylan, Jackson, Christian, Noah, Brayden, Angel, Chase, Nicholas

Comments on the falling names:

  • The huge fall of the names Alexa, Alexis, and Alexander probably relates to the confusion surrounding the Alexa device.
  • When names like Emma or Sophia lose a lot of usage, it doesn’t always mean much rank-wise.  This year a lot of names grew more popular only because all the names around them experienced comparatively greater usage loss.
  • A huge usage drop is more significant for Brandon at the bottom of the top 100 than the #1 name Noah

Questions?  Favorite names?  Are you surprised by anything?  Let me know in the comments! 

They’re Here! The Top 10 Baby Names of 2016

Top 10 Baby Names of 2016.png

The Top 10 Baby Names of 2016

At around 9:15 AM, the Social Security Administration updated their website and released the data for the most popular baby names of 2016!  Believe me when I say that waiting for their arrival was more intense than being a kid and waking up on Christmas to see what Santa brought.  I’m so glad they’re here!!!

I’m also pleased to find out how on or off the mark my predictions were.  You can read and compare those here.

The 10 most popular baby girls’ names of 2016:

  1. Emma (0 rank change; usage fell)
  2. Olivia (0 change; usage fell)
  3. Ava (+1 rank change; usage fell)
  4. Sophia (-1 rank change; usage fell)
  5. Isabella (0 change; usage fell)
  6. Mia (0 change; usage fell)
  7. Charlotte (+2 change; usage rose)
  8. Abigail (-1 change; usage fell)
  9. Emily (-1 change; usage fell)
  10. Harper (0 change; usage rose)

The top 10 most popular baby boys’ names of 2016:

  1. Noah (0 rank change; usage fell)
  2. Liam (0 rank change; usage fell)
  3. William (+2 rank change; usage fell)
  4. Mason (-1 rank change; usage fell)
  5. James (+2 rank change; usage rose very slightly)
  6. Benjamin (+4 rank change; usage rose)
  7. Jacob (-3 rank change; usage fell)
  8. Michael (+1 rank change; usage fell)
  9. Elijah (new, +2 rank change; usage rose)
  10. Ethan (-4 rank change; usage fell)

The only name that left the top 10 for either gender was Alexander…wow.  I honestly thought it would be Michael!  Perhaps more surprising is that nothing entered or left the girls’ list.  That, and the boys’ top 10 is unusually volatile this year. 

The only names that rose usage-wise were Charlotte, Harper, Benjamin, Elijah, and James!  Everyone else fell, even if their ranks rose.

What are your favorite names in the top 10?  Let me know in the comments!  In the meantime, check back later for info on the top 100, top 1000, and beyond!

Predictions: The Top 1000 Baby Names of 2016

In less than 12 hours, we’ll find out the most popular American baby names of 2016!  Here are my predictions for the names entering and leaving the top 1000, mostly based on what names are rising and falling near the threshold.  You can also read my top 10 and top 100 predictions.  Tomorrow, we’ll see how many of these actually appear or disappear!  

Here are the names I think will enter the top 1000:

  • Boys: Wesson, Alistair, Alaric, Harris, Taj, Keanu, Ira, Danilo, Fox, Koda, Zamir, Gatlin, Dashiell, Kabir
  • Girls: Octavia, Theresa, Tinsley, Mavis, Antonella, Raylee, Akira, Robin, Diya, Charleston, Amora, Aadhya, Harleigh, Kaylani, Maddie, Evalynn, Etta, Winnie, Sailor, Reign, Royalty

The following names compose my “maybe” list:

  • Boys: Harlem, Brysen, Kooper, Rayyan, Yaakov, Isai, Westley, Shmuel, Zyaire, Mccoy, Tadeo, Ahmir, Zayd, Aston, Greysen, Hollis, Reynaldo, Colson, Jad, Lian, Finnian, Koa, Ansel, Thorin, Benedict, Simeon, KaiserKylo
  • Girls: Winnie, India, Regan, Poppy, Ellery, Amayah, Robyn, Chandler, Elina, Araceli (?), Ramona, Spencer, Ailyn, Marian, Scout, Opal, Maisy, Jubilee, Addalynn (?), Loretta, Baylor, Novalee, Ailani, Bexley, Denver, Vada, Louise

Here are the names I think will exit:

  • Boys: Deshawn, Jaydon, Gilbert, Marquis, Keenan, Jayvion, Chevy, Kaeden, Jordyn, Jamarion, Aydan, Anton, Triston, Gibson, Alfred, Jessie, Ishaan, Ulises, Brenden, Neymar
  • Girls: Kaitlynn, Libby, Janiya, Denise, Mariyah, Sharon, Lilyanna, Emmalee, Heather, Cherish, Dixie, Wendy, Aranza, Elin, Halle, Nataly, Kiley, Kenya, Jasmin, Sariah, Kayden, Anabella, Caylee, Montserrat, Anabelle, Aryanna, Annabel, Jenny, Natalee, Sidney

Might also leave:

  • Boys: Truman, Jovani, Ernest, Davin, Rolando, Seamus, Rashad, Agustin, Steve, Darrell, Markus, Javon, Zackary
  • Girls: Tegan, Stevie, Aubriella, Aubrianna, Jocelynn, America, Kimora, Hadleigh, Ellison, Alissa, Saniyah, Susan, Aliya, Briley, Aimee, Asia, Kristen, Giana, Ally, Rylan, Emilie, Lindsay, Maleah, Kathleen, Lexie, Danica, Kailyn, Elsa

Remember, these are just predictions!  Tomorrow I could find out that I’m nowhere close.  That’s okay!  There are always wildcards, and I really just write my predictions for fun.

 

Predictions: The Top 100 Baby Names of 2016

The new U.S. data set comes out Friday!  Here are my predictions for the top 100.  You can read my top 10 predictions here.

11 names entered the top 100 in 2015 Hazel, Cora, Aurora, Quinn, Reagan, and Clara replaced Jasmine, Hadley, Alexandra, London, Lauren, and Sophie on the girls’ side; Ezra, Theodore, Elias, Mateo, and Sawyer replaced Justin, Camden, Luis, Juan, and Brody on the boys’ side.

Top 100 Names of 2015 (Both Genders, Fixed)

The Top 100 Most Popular Baby Names of 2015, Visualized

Judging by the fastest-rising names that are just outside the top 100, here are the ones I predict for entry:

  • Boys: Roman, Leonardo*, Greyson
  • Girls: Eliana, Elena, Luna, Willow, Kinsley

*Leonardo (current rank #103) ranked up 11 points (+356 uses) between 2014 and 2015, so the name is already doing well and could reach the top 100 without extra help.  However, Leonardo DiCaprio won the Academy Award for Best Actor in early 2016!  I anticipate a larger leap from 2015 to 2016.

Luna (#110; rank +33; +476 uses) belongs to a consortium of trendy classical names that also includes Athena and Valeria

These names I put as “maybes” for entry:

  • Boys: Declan, Abel, Harrison, Silas
  • Girls: Adalynn, Everly, Hadley, Delilah, Adeline

Even though Hadley dropped a couple ranks last year, I still hear a *lot* about this name.  Adeline made huge gains in 2015 because of the movie Age of Adaline, and Adalynn benefited.  The question is: will the names continue to rise so fast even if the movie boost is a one-time thing?

Harrison is possible (likely, even) because of Harrison Ford and Force Awakens, which was released at the end of 2015. Star Wars names!

Due to significant drops in popularity, these are the names I think will leave the top 100 in the 2016 list:  

  • Boys: Blake, Kayden, Ayden, Jace
  • Girls: Annabelle, Khloe, Alyssa, Alexis

Aiden ranked up in 2015, Kayden (#95; -5 rank; -476 uses) and other names ending in -Ayden did poorly in 2015.

Parents shied away from Annabelle (#92; -35 rank; -1074 uses) in 2015 after the name became associated with a horror movie.  My question: will the scary stick? 

These are the names I pegged as “maybe” leaving:

  • Boys: Bentley, Brandon, Kevin; maybe Jason and Zachary too
  • Girls: Aubree, Faith, Katherine

Regarding Brandon, Kevin, Jason, and Zachary: 80s and 90s baby names aren’t fashionable anymore, so don’t expect them to stick around much longer.  If 2016 isn’t the year these fall out of the top 100, 2017 will be. 

2015 was not a good year for Puritan-style virtue names (Temperance, Mercy, and Patience all left the top 1000).  Faith dropped 10 points between 2014 and 2015, and may leave the top 100 in the 2016 set. 

General trends I haven’t previously mentioned:

Old-fashioned names are very popular for girls.  The vintage-chic names of 2015 were ones like Hazel, Alice, and Cora; expect these to continue rising.  That isn’t to say modern names aren’t popping up more.  Southern names like Harper, Scarlett, and Paisley make for a very trendy subcategory of modern names.  Special recognition also goes to the “eye” names (Piper, Skylar, and Kylie) and the unisex Irish surnames (Quinn, Reagan, and Riley).

I have a harder time pegging the boys’ names.  The most popular boys’ names are decreasingly popular, evidenced by this SSA tidbit. There’s definitely some modernizing going on, yet some of today’s trendiest baby boy names sound like they belong in another century (looking right at you, Theodore and Ezra)!  Plenty of surnames (Hudson, Lincoln, Grayson) are doing well, except for a couple that are 90s leftovers.  Another trendy category I see?  Western-inspired names like Wyatt and Levi.   

Check back in a few days for the official list from the Social Security Administration.  Aaaaahhhh, I’m so excited! 😀

Top 10 Baby Name Predictions

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The Top 10 baby names of 2015.  What will they be in 2016? 

With the Social Security Administration releasing the 2016 data set so soon (Friday, May 12th), I’d like to cast my baby name predictions into the cauldron!  Let’s start with the top 10, since those are the most popular and the ones you’re most likely to encounter.  I will post my top 100 and top 1000 predictions later.

The top 10 girls’ names of 2015 were:

  1. Emma (0 rank change; -444 uses; 20355 total uses)
  2. Olivia (0; -121 uses; 19533 total)
  3. Sophia (0; -1163 uses; 17327 total)
  4. Ava (+1 rank; +700 uses; 16286 total)
  5. Isabella (-1 rank; -1446 uses; 15504 total)
  6. Mia (0; +1378 uses; 14820 total)
  7. Abigail (+1; +326 uses; 12311 total)
  8. Emily (-1; -835 uses; 11727 total)
  9. Charlotte (+1; +1284 uses; 11332 total)
  10. Harper (new, +1; +677 uses; 10241 total))

And the top 10 boys’ names in 2015 were:

  1. Noah (0 rank change; +367 uses; 19511 total uses)
  2. Liam (0; -61 uses; 18281 total)
  3. Mason (0; -557 uses; 16535 total)
  4. Jacob (0; -896 uses; 15816 total)
  5. William (0; -878 uses; 15809 total)
  6. Ethan (0; -628 uses; 14991 total)
  7. James (+2; +404 uses; 14705 total)
  8. Alexander (0; -883 uses; 14460 total)
  9. Michael (-2; -1002 uses; 14321 total)
  10. Benjamin (new, +2; -79 uses; 13608 total)

You might have noticed that many names that became less common experienced no rank change, and that some names either ranked up despite a drop in the total or stayed put despite a major usage increase.  The top of the charts are are staid and insensitive.  Rank changes in this range often occur because one name falls faster than another. 

Because a large rise or drop in the top 10 means little for rank change, it’s helpful to employ context clues in predictions.  You simply can’t look at the stats for one name, because if one takes off then similar names grow alongside it.  The inverse is probably true too – if a very popular name falls then its relatives will also.

Emma might stay #1, but I’m starting to think Olivia will be 2016’s Queen of the Baby Names.  Emma offshoots like Emmalee and Emmaline are falling in popularity – if a very popular name falls then its relatives will alsoEmmalynn is rising, but that is likely helped by the extreme trendiness and growing popularity of other -Lynn names.  Furthermore, the raw usage numbers tell us that Emma fell a little faster than Olivia did between 2014 and 2015.  Other reasons I think Olivia will be #1 are 1) the meteoric rise of Oliver and 2) the rise of Olive.  On the other hand…Olivia‘s alternative spellings (Olyvia, Alivia…) are becoming less popular

Noah will likely continue his reign as King of the Baby Names in 2016.  Noah was one of only two boys’ names in the 2015 top 10 to make usage gains (the other was James).  Liam receives all the hype, but I’d like to point out something I think is seriously overlooked – in the state of California, Liam ranks nowhere near #1.  Last year I researched naming at the state level and discovered that if a name is in California’s top 100, it’s automatically in the national top 1000.  Liam certainly is popular in Cali (apparently he’s even #2 in San Diego, where 2016 stats are already available), but not quite enough to unseat Noah.  Of course, we’ll find out for sure on Friday!

After predicting the #1 names, the next important question asks which names will leave the top 10.  In 2015, Harper and Benjamin replaced Madison and DanielMichael will probably leave the top 10 this time around, and Emily is his likely female counterpart.  Alexander also looks like a possibility.  The next question: what will replace them?

Amelia (current rank #12) is Emily‘s probable replacement.  She’s a fast riser and the #1 name in England and Wales, plus similar-sounding Emilia also rises.  In the unlikely case that another spot opens up in the girls’ top 10, I nominate Elizabeth (perennially popular, rising, + Netflix’s “The Crown”) and Evelyn (trendy, rising) as back-up dancers.   I have a harder time figuring out the supplanter among the boys (unless you want to talk about James or Jacob, which actually mean “supplanter!”).  I’ve had Elijah on my shortlist for a while, but he may simply stay #11 or #12; he’s my conservative guess.  Oliver jumped very high between 2014 and 2015 (gained +13 rank, +2227 usage for a total of 11592), but he won’t necessarily enjoy that same level of momentum between the 2015 and 2016 sets.  Aiden rose a little in 2015, but rhyming names like Jayden, Brayden, and Kayden fell.  I nominate Lucas (current rank #16) as a wildcard because of new Star Wars movies and “Stranger Things.”

Thus, my prediction lists:

Girls

  1. Olivia
  2. Emma
  3. Ava
  4. Sophia or Mia
  5. Mia or Sophia
  6. Isabella
  7. Charlotte
  8. Abigail – Theoretically, Abigail would be pushed downwards by other names even her usage increases.
  9. Harper
  10. Amelia

Boys

  1. Noah
  2. Liam
  3. Mason
  4. James
  5. William
  6. Jacob
  7. Ethan
  8. Benjamin
  9. Alexander
  10. Elijah or Oliver

These predictions aren’t an exact science.  We can’t determine exactly what will happen, only what might happen.  There are always those names you are so sure will be the next big thing, and then they simply fall short!  I can already tell you a few of the names on the prediction lists will be out of order, and the #1 names could actually end up being Emma and Liam.  The fun and anticipation are enough for me – it reminds me of trying to predict the plot of an upcoming Harry Potter book!

Thoughts?  Check back in a few days for the official list!  And, you know…to see how strong my predictions are.  

 

Below the Top 1000, Part 45 (Girls)

We’re finally at the last post of this series.  The way the American data works, you can only see names that were used 5 or more times in a year…and we’re at that minimum.  What’s more, the 2016 data comes out this Friday (yay)!  For fun, I suggest looking back through these posts and guessing which names rise or fall.

For this very last selection of names Below the Top 1000 in 2015, girls’ names used just 5 times!  As always, the Social Security Administration is my source.

  • 5 girls: Adelis, Adesire, Adonai, Adorable, Aelita, Aelyn, Aeowyn, Agathe, Ahsoka, Aia, Ajournee, Aksa, Alaria, Albana, Ale, Aljoharah, Almadelia, Almudena, Aloe, Amabella, Amadea, Amarely, Ameline, Amillion, Amorina, Amyrical, Anandi, Andjela, Aniyahlee, Anjanette, Annaleia, Annaline, Anova, Antheia, Anuoluwapo, Anwyn, Apsara, Aquinnah, Araminta, Arena, Ariday, Arisbel, Aseret, Ashiah, Ashlynd, Aspasia, Atiyah, Attica, Aulii, Australia, Avalise, Aviance, Aviary, Azmariah, Baleria, Beautyful, Belia, Belize, Bellatrix, Berta, Bertie, Bethia, Betselot, Beverley, Biftu, Blessen, Bly, Breck, Brita, Bryasia, Busra, Cabela, Calvary, Calyx, Cameo, Candida, Capella, Carola, Cascia, Cassiana, Celinda, Ceres, Chamille, Choice, Chrysanthemum, Claiborne, Cliona, Clodagh, Clotilde, Concetta, Constantina, Coralina, Corinthia, Czarina, Dagmar, Dakaria, Daleth, Daneen, Darianys, Dejanique, Delancey, Delphina, Dessence, Desta, Diary, Digna, Dilma, Dilpreet, Doria, Dotty, Dwija, Eilonwy, Elanore, Elisiana, Eliska, Elleny, Elna, Elwyn, Elzbieta, Empryss, Emuna, Ernestine, Escarleth, Euna, Evgenia, Evin, Evora, Exie, Exodus, Fairy, Fate, Federica, Fergie, Fermina, Fiamma, Fina, Fira, Fotini, France, Gatsby, Geeta, Gethsemani, Giovannina, Gold, Greenly, Guillermina, Gurseerat, Gwenevieve, Happy, Harleequinn, Harumi, Havanah, Haviland, Helia, Heliana, Hermila, Hibo, Hinako, Ibeth, Ilda, Independence, Indika, Indu, Inge, Ingris, Intisar, Io, Ireri, Ismary, Israelle, Itzamar, Jadeline, Jadis, Jamesa, Jaydaliz, Jazzy, Jedidah, Jennabelle, Jessabel, Jocabed, Joleigha, Joules, Joviana, Judaea, Julicia, Juwairiyah, Kamiko, Kasha, Kehinde, Kekeli, Kenasia, Keshayla, Kessley, Kindred, Kirklyn, Kjerstin, Klowie, Kressida, Lehua, Leonarda, Leonella, Lilas, Lissy, Lizmar, Lochlynn, Lovisa, Ludmila, Ludovica, Lunabelle, Lunden, Luziana, Lynx, Lysette, Madrid, Maekayla, Maleficent, Maranatha, Marcellina, Mariabella, Mariadejesus, Mariadelcarmen, Marigny, Marisabel, Marishka, Marixa, Mercury, Merjem, Mialuna, Michella, Michi, Mieke, Mikhaila, Milca, Minori, Monasia, Monterey, Morenike, Moria, Mosley, Muireann, Nathanaelle, Nation, Natori, Nebraska, Neelah, Neleh, Nelliel, Nerissa, Nevena, Nieves, Nike, Nilufer, Nix, Nneka, Oakland, Ocie, Okalani, Oleta, Olinda, Olivine, Olwyn, Omariana, Pagan, Pahola, Palin, Palyn, Panagiota, Paraskevi, Parvina, Paulita, Paxley, Paylee, Peony, Pfeiffer, Pink, Pistol, Pooja, Portland, Praylee, Prisma, Qiana, Quintessa, Raielle, Rally, Ramsey, Reality, Rebyl, Rehab*, Remedios, Reminisce, Rickelle, Rigel, Righteous, Rim, Rokiatou, Rosaisela, Saily, Sakeenah, Salsabeel, Samuela, Santiana, Sebastiana, Serendipity, Setareh, Sevilla, Shade, Shakhzoda, Sharleez, Sher, Simbo, Skyland, Snezhana, Sojourner, Solimar, Sophonie, Sparkle, Starlight, Stellaluna, Suetta, Susy, Synnove, Tabor, Tamila, Tamriel, Theda, Toula, Treva, Trillium, Trishelle, Troian, Tsering, Tuba, Unica, Valli, Varina, Verbena, Vladislava, Whittley, Worthy, Xiadani, Xochiquetzal, Xyliana, Yarizmar, Yazbeth, Yukiko, Yuzu, Yvelisse, Zabella, Zabelle, Zealand, Zephora, Zinachimdi, Ziza, Zolie, Zophie, Zynique

*I checked.  There were indeed 5 girls named Rehab

What do you think of these names?  Let me know in the comments!  And finally, thank you for reading this series.  The name-spotting is fun, and the conversation even better. 🙂

Previous 5 posts in this series:

Names from Guardians of the Galaxy

Before you proceed: Mild Spoilers Warning!

I went to see Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 last night.  I absolutely loved the first movie – the pacing, the soundtrack, and OMG did I mention the soundtrack?  This sequel was good too, but it just didn’t have the same charm for me as the first one.  Don’t get me wrong – the soundtrack (Awesome Mix Vol. 2) is fantastic!  Hopefully they’ll release it on vinyl…

IMG_1090

Please release Awesome Mix Vol. 2 on vinyl!

When I go to movie theaters now, it’s not just about entertainment.  Collecting character names has become a significant part of my movie-going experience.  So…here’s my post about the influence of Guardians of the Galaxy on baby names!  I’ve checked these names against the most up-to-date birth data from the Social Security Administration.

Both Volumes:

Peter Peter left the top 100 in 1997, but he’s always been popular.  This name stabilized in wake of Guardians Vol. 1, and although rank decreased slightly between 2014 and 2015, raw usage increased.  I can’t see Peter returning to the top 100 any time soon, but he’s not going south, either.  2015 rank: #206, with 1913 uses.  For extra context, the 2013 (pre-GotG) rank was also #206, but with 1849 uses. 

Quill Peter‘s surname shot up from 5 uses in 2014 to 21 uses in 2015. 

Gamora – It honestly surprised me to learn that this hasn’t appeared in the data.   Awesome lady warrior in a major movie with a feminine-sounding name, and nobody thinks to name their daughters after her?  Something’s fishy here.  Then I realized…her name sounds a lot like Gomorrah.  Would that do it? 

Nebula – Only appeared once, in 2011.  Astronomy names are somewhat trendy now, so I think we will see a few more in the near future. 

Rocket – Well we can’t say that this name rocketed upwards after the first movie, but the usage almost doubled between 2014 and 2015.  13 boys and 7 girls were named Rocket in 2014 (the first time that Rocket was used for girls), and 25 boys and 11 girls were named Rocket in 2015. 

Drax – 6 boys in 2015.  Drax is probably my favorite (and a lot of people’s favorite) character in both movies due to his sense of humor.  That, and the “ax” ending give this baby name potential.  I think the surprising thing for me is that the name Drax debuted the year after the movie. 

Groot – No debut yet.  Expecting parents might be too concerned about “I am Groot” jokes to go ahead with this tree name. 

Yondu – Not in the data yet.

Kraglin – Not in the data, but Kraglin sounds fairly name-y. 

Howard – Howard the Duck cameos in both movies. The name Howard left the top 1000 in 2013 and again in 2015.  The best way to describe this name’s current status is “touch-and-go.”

Vol. 1:

Ronan – The popularity of Ronan had been rising for several years already, but an argument could be made that Guardians of the Galaxy accelerated it.  667 boys were named Ronan in 2013 (the year before GotG V.1), up from 593 in 2012.  In 2014, there were 864 male Ronans and 1024 in 2015.  

Korath – Hasn’t appeared in the data.

Nova – Like Ronan, this name was growing more popular at a fairly steady pace but then accelerated after Guardians of the Galaxy.  However, I can’t tell for sure whether GotG is the definite cause or if this name became super trendy for another reason.  I can say that Nova is increasingly popular for boys.  In 2015, 1511 girls and 127 boys were named Nova

Thanos – While Thanos didn’t debut in 2014 or 2015, the movie did return the name to the data and boosted it.  12 boys were named Thanos in 2015, up from 5 in 2014.  You can read more about this name here.

Vol 2:

Mantis – Maybe this sounds a little too much like “Praying Mantis,” but the character was adorable and I could see a few parents using the name. 

Ego – I hope I don’t see any birth announcements for Ego or data debuts.  Let’s just say that the character’s name was apt. 

Meredith – Peter Quill’s mom.  The name Meredith has started to rise again, but I don’t think Meredith Quill is the reason because I don’t remember her first name being mentioned in the first GotG (even though the character appeared).  That said, 507 girls (rank #590) were named Meredith in 2015, up from 475 (#609) in 2014 and 431 (#660) in 2013. 

Brandy – There’s no character named Brandy in the movie, but the 1970s song Brandy was a major motif.  65 girls and 11 boys were named Brandy in 2015, and I wonder if we’ll see the name rise in 2017 and 2018 because of the soundtrack.  However, Brandy is both outdated (peak was 1979) and an alcoholic beverage, probably tempering this name’s ability to make a major comeback at this time. 

Ayesha – 151 girls were named Ayesha in 2015; the name is a variation of the Arabic name Aisha.  

Taserface – Yeah, you probably shouldn’t name your kid Taserface.  They made fun of this one so badly in the movie…and Taserface just thought he was being cool and intimidating. 😦

Stakar – played by Sylvester Stallone.  That was awesome.  To my knowledge, not in the data.

The thing I’ve generally found with these names is that the first movie positively influenced names that already existed, but didn’t really proliferate new names.  Drax is an exception, but his name has a trendy sound. 

What are your favorite names from Guardians of the Galaxy

Star Wars Day 2017

Same image as last year, from this video

Happy Star Wars Day 2017!  May the Fourth be with you…unless you celebrate Revenge of the Fifth?  Whichever side of the Force you prefer, let’s talk about the state of Star Wars baby names in 2017!

On May 4th, 2016, we were just a couple days away from learning the most popular baby names of 2015.  Today, we’re within a week of the 2016 stats.  Because a new Star Wars movie is coming out every year now (and will for the foreseeable future), it’s seriously frustrating that we have to make guesses with the definitive data just around the corner!  That said – when we do have the data, I think we’ll see a decent impact from The Force Awakens on the popular baby names of 2016.  Rogue One might have a little influence, but the 2017 set will better reflect that.

A year ago, we learned that while Episode VII gave a massive boost to the name Kylo in 2015, there weren’t any female baby Reys (that we know of).  This is probably because Force Awakens was released in December – the end of the year, when phenomena have the least time to drastically alter the naming charts.  That said, we already know that 4 Scottish boys* were named Kylo in 2016 (none in 2015).  While we don’t know yet how popular Kylo is in America, it’s fairly safe to assume that it and other names from episode 7 will shine within our 2016 stats.  Rogue One character names, on the other hand, will probably be better reflected by babies born in 2017.

Let’s review the character names most likely to impact the charts, shall we?

The classics:

  • Luke – This popular New Testament name is in the top 30 (Current U.S. rank: #28).  Luke Skywalker barely appeared in Force Awakens, but the sheer hype might influence some parents. 
  • Leia – Current rank: #421.  Princess Leia returned in Episode VII as General Leia Organa.  This name is already rising quickly and will almost certainly continue to do so.  My question – will Leia reach the top 100 by the end of the decade?
  • Harrison – Harrison Ford revived this old-fashioned name when Star Wars first came out in the 70s.  At last count, Harrison ranked #119 in the U.S. and continues to rise.  Considering the actor’s prominent presence in Force Awakens, I wouldn’t be surprised if Harrison cracks the top 100 in the 2016 set. 
  • Carrie – Carrie Fisher passed away at the end of 2016, shortly after the release of Rogue One.  She also featured in Force Awakens, and supposedly finished filming for The Last Jedi (Episode VIII).  Don’t be surprised if Carrie returns to the top 1000 in 2017.  Although this name declines every time the Stephen King tale comes around, I think the actress’s death will give the name a boost.  At last count, only 125 girls were named Carrie.
  • Han – Just 22 boys were named Han in 2015 (and 19 girls…hmm).  Han is close to the German nickname Hans (equivalent to Jack), but the actor’s name has always been a more popular choice with parents than the character’s.
  • Solo – 7 boys in 2015.  Expect to see a few more in the 2016 set.  

At this point you’re probably asking where the prequel names are.  My answer: “it is not a story the Jedi would tell you.”  (In reality, I think we might see more of prequel names in the 2017 data due to the popularity of prequel memes.  Anyway, I’ve written a little about prequel names in last year’s May the Fourth post; still no Jar Jars, yay!  Anakin rose in popularity, though; debuted in 2014 at #960, ranked #912 in 2015.)

The Force Awakens:

  • ReyRey is historically a boys’ name, but as a girls’ name this didn’t even appear in the 2015 set.  Expect to see some in 2016!  (On a side note – I almost convinced my cousin to name her May 4th baby after Rey last year.  She loved it, but her husband wasn’t keen on second middle names!).  If you’d like to know more about this name, check out this post by Maybe It Is Daijirou.
  • Poe Dameron – 8 baby boys were named Poe in 2015.  Fewer than 5 boys (possibly none) were named Poe in 2014, though 5 girls got the name.  Expect to see Poe rise and Dameron debut.
  • Finn – #209.  This was already a trendy baby name before the Force awakened.  It’s possible that some of the Finns in 2015 were named after the John Boyega character, and I wonder how much of a boost there will be in the 2016 list.
  • Kylo Ren – In the year before Episode VII’s release, only 8 boys were named Kylo in the U.S.  At that point, it would have been considered a variation of Kyle.  Then, in 2015, there were 35 boys named Kylo.  Despite a December release and the villainy of Kylo Ren, parents immediately latched onto this name!  My question – could enough parents of babies born in 2016 have chosen this name to make it a top 1000 debut?  We’ll find out soon enough.  Meanwhile, the same number of boys were named Ren in 2015 as they were in 2014. 

Rogue One:

  • Jyn Erso – A new name on everyone’s mind!  There might be some in the 2016 set; although Rogue One also had an end-of-year release, I think the name Jyn Erso was touted around for several months before we finally got to see who she was.  Side note: Does anyone else wonder if we’ll start seeing Jynnifer as a SW-inspired alternative to Jennifer?
  • Galen Erso – Jyn’s father.  Galen (pr. gay-lin) is an Ancient Greek name associated with medicine.  47 boys were named Galen in 2015.
  • Cassian Andor – Cassian is related to the popular Roman name Cassius (ranks #646) through Cassianus.  19 boys were named Cassian in 2015, and I for one would love to see this name take off.
  • Orson Krennic The name Orson is famous because of Orson Welles and Orson Scott Card; 65 boys were named this in 2015.
  • Saw Gerrera – 31 boys were named Saw in 2015. 
  • Bodhi – #499 in U.S.  This name would continue to rise with or without Star Wars!
  • ChirrutI never saw this name before the movie, but maybe it’ll debut in 2017? 

What are your favorite Star Wars Names?  Would you name a child after a character? 

*The Scottish baby name stats can be found here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/names/babies-first-names/full-lists-of-babies-first-names-2010-to-2014.  Don’t let the dates in the URL fool you – 2015 and 2016 are on the page too.  

**The American data comes from the Social Security Administration.